8月8日：美联储暂停加息 _ 郑友林的专家文章

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8月8日：美联储暂停加息 2008-10-01

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8月8日：美联储暂停加息

2006年8月8日，FOMC召开例会，决定维持现有利率不变。（参见美联储官方网站http://www.federalreserve.gov)

联邦公开市场委员会今天决定维持现行的5.25%的联邦基金利率。

经济增长已经从今年初的强劲上升减缓，这部分反映了住房市场的逐渐冷却，而且，加息和能源价格的上升都具有滞后效应。

最近几个月的核心通货膨胀一直在下降，资源利用水平处于高位，能源和其他商品价格的提高，将对通货膨胀构成潜在的压力。不过，长期来看，通货膨胀压力仍然是温和的，它反应了通货膨胀预期受到控制，货币政策行动的累积效应，以及其他一些限制总需求的因素。

虽然如此，委员会判断，某种程度的通货膨胀风险依然存在。任何对付这种风险的进一步紧缩的程度和时机，将取决于未来信息所揭示的通货膨胀和经济发展情况而定。

为FOMC货币政策行动投票的理事：本·S·伯南克主席；T·F·盖特勒副主席；苏珊·S·比斯；杰克·桂恩；唐纳德·L·库恩；南代尔·S·克罗斯内尔；桑德拉·皮亚拉托；凯文·M·沃西；以及简尼特·L·耶伦。杰·M·莱克则投了反对票，在这次会议上，他倾向于将联邦基金利率再上调25个基点。

【简评】经过连续17次加息之后，FOMC终于决定休息一下，看看市场反应究竟如何，如果前面的17次加息效果明显，那么，可能会就此止步，如果加息效果不明显，则会选择继续加息。笔者认为，美联储决定暂时中止（注意，不是终止）加息，的确需要仔细观察市场对过去17次加息的反应，这样做，也是给市场一个喘息的时机，缓和一下加息带来的巨大冲击。但是，中止加息并不意味着美联储可以对通货膨胀掉以轻心。应该说，在是否立即停止加息的问题上，美联储内的意见是不一致的，在公告中，也没有回避这个问题。公告告诉我们杰·M·莱克投了反对票，在这次会议上，他倾向于将联邦基金利率再上调25个基点。从技术角度讲，我是赞成杰·M·莱克观点的，我甚至主张将联邦基金利率加到5.75—6.00的水平。依据只有一个：在通货膨胀抬头之际，加息决策一定要猛。

附1：FOMC公告
August 8, 2006
For immediate release
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent.
Economic growth has moderated from its quite strong pace earlier this year, partly reflecting a gradual cooling of the housing market and the lagged effects of increases in interest rates and energy prices.
Readings on core inflation have been elevated in recent months, and the high levels of resource utilization and of the prices of energy and other commodities have the potential to sustain inflation pressures. However, inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting contained inflation expectations and the cumulative effects of monetary policy actions and other factors restraining aggregate demand.
Nonetheless, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain. The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Sandra Pianalto; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred an increase of 25 basis points in the federal funds rate target at this meeting.

附2：Jeffrey M. Lacker
President Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Dr. Lacker took office August 1, 2004, as the seventh chief executive of the Fifth District Federal Reserve Bank, at Richmond. He is serving the remainder of a term that began on March 1, 2001. In 2006, he serves as a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, bringing his Districts perspective to policy discussions in Washington.
Dr. Lacker was born September 27, 1955, in Lexington, Kentucky. He received his bachelor’s degree in economics from Franklin and Marshall College in 1977. Following graduation, Dr. Lacker joined Wharton Econometrics in Philadelphia. He went on to earn a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Wisconsin in 1984. Dr. Lacker was an assistant professor of economics at the Krannert School of Management at Purdue University from 1984 to 1989. He joined the Bank in 1989 as an economist in the banking area of the Research Department. He was named research officer in 1994, vice president in 1996, and senior vice president and director of the Research Department in May 1999.
Dr. Lacker is the author of numerous articles in professional journals on monetary, financial, and payment economics, and has presented his work at several universities and central banks. He taught at The College of William and Mary in 1992 and 1993, and in 1997 he was a visiting scholar at the Swiss National Bank.
Dr. Lacker is a member of the Maggie L. Walker Governors School Advisory Council, and he serves as director for the board of the Richmond Jewish Foundation. He is also a member of the Junior Achievement of Central Virginia Advisory Board and is director of the World Affairs Council of Greater Richmond.