9月20日：美联储继续按兵不动 _ 郑友林的专家文章

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9月20日：美联储继续按兵不动 2008-10-01

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9月20日：美联储继续按兵不动

2006年9月20日，FOMC召开例会，决定仍然维持现有利率不变。（参见美联储官方网站http://www.federalreserve.gov)

联邦公开市场委员会今天决定维持现行的5.25%的联邦基金利率。

经济增长放缓看来还在继续，这部分反映了住房市场的冷却。

各种信息表明，核心通货膨胀在上升，资源利用水平处于高位，能源和其他商品价格的提高，将对通货膨胀构成潜在的压力。不过，长期来看，通货膨胀压力仍然是温和的，它反应了能源价格刺激作用下降，通货膨胀预期受到控制，货币政策行动的累积效应，以及其他一些限制总需求的因素。

虽然如此，委员会判断，通货膨胀风险依然存在。任何对付这种风险的进一步紧缩的程度和时机，将取决于未来信息所揭示的通货膨胀和经济发展情况。

为FOMC货币政策行动投票的理事：本·S·伯南克主席；T·F·盖特勒副主席；苏珊·S·比斯；杰克·桂恩；唐纳德·L·库恩；南代尔·S·克罗斯内尔；桑德拉·皮亚拉托；凯文·M·沃西；以及简尼特·L·耶伦。杰·M·莱克则投了反对票，在这次会议上，他倾向于将联邦基金利率再上调25个基点。

经过连续17次加息之后，FOMC决定继续观望，看看市场反应究竟如何，如果前面的17次加息效果明显，那么，可能会就此止步，如果加息效果不明显，则会选择继续加息。在是否立即停止加息的问题上，美联储内的意见是不一致的，在公告中，也没有回避这个问题。杰·M·莱克继续投反对票，在这次会议上，他倾向于将联邦基金利率再上调25个基点。需要指出的是，从技术角度讲，我是赞成杰·M·莱克观点的，我甚至主张将联邦基金利率加到5.75—6.00的水平。

跟踪美联储的利率动向是一件非常无聊的事情，你看，9月20日与8月8日的公告之间，就差几个字。但是，千万不要觉得无聊。它反映了美联储的技术官僚们暂停加息的立场以及理由。难能可贵的是，杰·M·莱克还是投了反对票，他是好样的，坚持自己的判断，而且不受他人立场的影响。FOMC有一个宽容而有效的决策机制，这是美国人的福分。相比之下，中国的货币政策委员会，好象就缺乏透明度，至于容忍不同意见的人的雅量呢？即便是有，人们也看不到。

附2：认识这个持不同意见者——Jeffrey M. Lacker

President Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Dr. Lacker took office August 1, 2004, as the seventh chief executive of the Fifth District Federal Reserve Bank, at Richmond. He is serving the remainder of a term that began on March 1, 2001. In 2006, he serves as a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, bringing his Districts perspective to policy discussions in Washington.

Dr. Lacker was born September 27, 1955, in Lexington, Kentucky. He received his bachelor’s degree in economics from Franklin and Marshall College in 1977. Following graduation, Dr. Lacker joined Wharton Econometrics in Philadelphia. He went on to earn a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Wisconsin in 1984. Dr. Lacker was an assistant professor of economics at the Krannert School of Management at Purdue University from 1984 to 1989. He joined the Bank in 1989 as an economist in the banking area of the Research Department. He was named research officer in 1994, vice president in 1996, and senior vice president and director of the Research Department in May 1999.

Dr. Lacker is the author of numerous articles in professional journals on monetary, financial, and payment economics, and has presented his work at several universities and central banks. He taught at The College of William and Mary in 1992 and 1993, and in 1997 he was a visiting scholar at the Swiss National Bank.

Dr. Lacker is a member of the Maggie L. Walker Governors School Advisory Council, and he serves as director for the board of the Richmond Jewish Foundation. He is also a member of the Junior Achievement of Central Virginia Advisory Board and is director of the World Affairs Council of Greater Richmond.